NFL Wildcard Preview & Picks

This is it.  Seventeen weeks later we have our playoff teams.  The way the NFL playoffs work is the top two teams in each division get a bye in the first round.  (1. Broncos 2. Patriots 1. Panthers 2. Cardinals).  Then the 3 seed and the 4 seed each host a playoff game in the first round against the respective wildcard teams with corresponding records… Yes, the Redskins and Texans are actually hosting playoff games.  How it is supposed to work is the division winners are the four best teams in the conference, and the wildcard teams are the two best division runner ups.  As we know, when it comes to sports everything goes as planned. No. This year the problem is basically worse case scenario – or best case depending on how you look at it.

Vegas has listed all four road teams (the wildcard teams) as favorites in the first round.  This means that there were four divisions with the best 8 teams in the playoffs, and the other four conferences had the bottom 4 playoff tams. The power was very unbalanced this season. Below I have broken down each game for the average fan:

1. Chiefs at Texans, Saturday 1/9 4:20PM (KC -3.5)
   • Don’t let the 9-7 record of the Texans fool you, they stink. They were crowned champions of the piss poor AFC South. Playing the likes of Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee twice a year will certainly inflate your record.  The Chiefs on the other hand, started this season 1-5 and people were calling for Andy Reid’s head.  Since then?  Fat Andy hasn’t lost a single game.  Some haven’t been pretty but none the less 10-0 run since then.  The 1 seed Broncos happen to be in their division so that’s why they’re playing this week.  Think of it this way, it’s Alex Smith vs. Brian Hoyer.  This will likely be the most lopsided of the playoff games.  Oh btw, the last time the Chiefs won a playoff game? 22 years ago.. against the Texans.. in Houston.. and their quarterback was Joe Montana.. an ex 49er.. just like Alex Smith.
2. Steelers at Bengals, Saturday 1/9 8:15PM (PIT -2.5)
   • One of the best scenarios in the first round of the playoffs is an in-division rematch.  Every division teams plays each other twice during the season.  Sometimes if the records line up, you get a third game winner takes all in the playoffs.  These teams are pretty evenly matched up.  The Bengals were one of the four undefeated teams at the beginning of the season, but began to lose steam as the season moved forward.  With the loss of their star QB Andy Dalton, AJ McCarron is slated to try and grab the Bengals their first playoff win in, well a really long time. The Steelers are the NFL’s most winning franchise.  A history of excellence.  Their quarterback and coach have played on the big stage before and are coming in hot after being the last team to make playoffs. This game will likely be the best game to watch of the four games.
3. Seahawks at Vikings, Sunday 1/10 1:05PM (SEA -5)
   • BLOWOUT ALERT. Although the Vikings have the better record and the regular season rushing record, they don’t stand a chance against the Seahawks. Seattle is one of those teams that struggles at the beginning but once they get things together, it’s like flipping a switch.  They are coming off an absolute rout of the NFC’s 2 seed cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater won’t stand a chase for the historically successful Seahawks defense.  As for home field advantage:  The Vikings have been playing at the University of Minnesota’s stadium while they wait for their new stadium to be built. The catch?  They aren’t used to playing this late in the season in the bitter cold Minnesota air as their old stadium was a dome.  Last time I checked Seattle lies north of Minneapolis and the Seahawks should be used to playing late into the winter seeing as they lost in the Super Bowl last year.. on the last play of the game. Vengeance.
4. Packers at Washington, Sunday 1/10 4:40PM (GB -1)
   • Far and away the worst game of the four. You must be thing Aaron Rodgers -1 is a lock right?  Not even close. The Packers are this years most overrated team by a ton.  Look back to their many close wins like the Thursday night hail mary against the Lions.  They should of lost that game, to the Lions! Washington on the other hand is much of the opposite story.  I’m not going to preach that they are underrated because believe me, they stink.  But Kirk Cousins’ numbers at home are undeniable.  This game in my opinion is worthless as the winner is slated to be slaughtered by either the Cardinals or the Panthers in the following round.  One thing to watch for is the Redskins sneaky good defense.  In the past three games they managed to rack up 14 sacks.  That will be interesting to pay attention to as in the past two games Rodgers was sacked 13 times.

This season my uPicks record ended up being: 42-35, and my best bets were 7-3.  As of now I am beating Vegas, emphasis on “as of now.”  Here are my round 1 playoff picks:

Chiefs -3.5, Steelers -2.5, Seahawks -5, Washington +1.  Yes I picked Washington just so I didn’t choose all of the favorites.  Best Bets are KC and SEA, I think both games will be statement games for these teams.