Categories: News

Harvard Study: Seattle Seahawks And Miami Dolphins in Superbowl 50

Moneyball seems to be making its way from baseball to football, but a Harvard student predicts that Superbowl 50 will pit the Seattle Seahawks against the Miami Dolphins – yes, you read that correctly.

Kurt Ballard developed a model for predicting the odds that NFL teams had in making the 2015 playoffs, the findings of which, were published on the Harvard College Sports Analysis College webpage.

His methodology was as follows:

The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the ‘core’ makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 ‘Front Seven’ defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.

Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter!

A week of sports news in your in-box.
We find the sports news you need to know, so you don't have to.

Mr. Ballard must be a fantasy player buff, as most people who play for money already calculate teams around RAV’s and core players. But his predictions seem spotty. He calculates that in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks have a 95 percent shot at making the playoffs, and after should get to the Super Bowl. They are trailed by on only 2 percent by the Green Bay Packers at 93 percent. That seems reasonable, as the Seahawks could have won the Superbowl last year, but someone, I won’t name any names, didn’t make Marshawn Lynch run the ball for the last play.

The real head turner of this study, though, is his prediction for the AFC, the Miami Dolphin with a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs. They are followed by the Kansas City Chief at 66 percent, and then the New England Patriots (guess he accounted for Brady’s impending suspension).

Pete Aragones

Recent Posts

Paul George Exits With Knee Injury As 76ers Fall To 2-12 In Loss To Grizzlies

With their big three finally back in action Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers suffered another setback…

14 hours ago

VIDEO: Nike Pays Tribute to Rafael Nadal With 30-Foot Projection In Front of Eiffel Tower

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tny--EWynOQ Nike paid tribute to Spanish tennis legend Rafael Nadal with a 10-meter-tall animated display…

1 day ago

VIDEO: Rafael Nadal Gets Emotional Tribute as He Retires From Tennis

https://youtu.be/dtJoJz9hC48 Tennis legend Rafael Nadal bid a heartfelt goodbye to his devoted Spanish fans as he brought…

1 day ago

VIDEO EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Olympic Fencer Eli Dershwitz Explains The Art Of Fencing

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DQ9Rxhnuer4 U.S. Olympic fencer Eli Dershwitz shed light on the critical skills necessary in fencing…

2 days ago

Two Bears Offensive Linemen Return To Practice, Caleb Williams Desperate For Blocking

Two offensive linemen for the Chicago Bears returned to practice, a massive step in the…

4 days ago

VIDEO: UFC Heavyweight Champion Performs Viral Trump Dance In New York

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/s2g9t_33Myw President-elect Donald Trump received a warm welcome from Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter Jon…

4 days ago