With Elite Defense & Mahomes At Helm, Undefeated Chiefs Remain Super Bowl Favorites

Through 10 weeks of the 2024 NFL season, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs remain perfect with a 9-0 record. Between that and back-to-back Super Bowl victories, they should figure as the prohibitive favorite to win another one next February. 

Many people still aren’t convinced, however. For years, the Chiefs’ identity has revolved around its offense. Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce have formed a dynastic duo, and since Tyreek Hill’s departure, Andy Reid’s innovative schemes have proven capable of turning an army of average wide receivers into playmakers. The team has been notoriously, sometimes frustratingly, fun to watch.

This year’s team is markedly different. It’s very reasonable to argue that Mahomes is having the worst season of his career. He currently ranks 11th in passing yards per game, behind Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. Young breakout stars Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice both went down with injuries early in the year. 

Kelce has re-emerged as the best tight end in the league, but that hasn’t been enough to promote much scoring. The Chiefs also rank 11th in points per game, just ahead of the Steelers and Falcons. 

But while it would appear that Kansas City’s offense has regressed from a statistical standpoint, it may simply be a matter of game flow. Gone are the days of wild Chiefs shootouts, as the team’s defense has become an elite unit capable of shutting down most offenses in the league. Christopher Jones leads a monstrous defensive line that has shut down rushers all year, while a solid secondary has proven capable of keeping most receivers in check. As a whole, the defense has allowed the fourth fewest yards per game this season.

Mahomes’ gunslinging days seem to be behind him. In its place, Kansas City has adopted a surgical, grinding approach without losing any of its effectiveness. Not counting the preseason, the team hasn’t lost since Christmas Day in 2023.

It’s easy to poke holes in the team’s undefeated record. Just last week, Broncos kicker Wil Lutz had a game-winning field goal blocked late in the fourth quarter. In Week 1, Isaiah Likely was one toe away from scoring a walkoff touchdown for the Ravens. Realistically, the Chiefs could very well have three or four losses if things had gone slightly differently. They’ve proven unflinchingly effective in crunch time, however, closing out tight games with elite efficiency.

It’s also easy to say that the Chiefs aren’t alone in the NFL’s top tier. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-caliber season for the Ravens, who have also added Derrick Henry to their backfield. The Lions might have the best offense of the decade, featuring dynamic playmakers up and down the depth chart. Christian McCaffrey is back and the 49ers are rounding into form. The Bills and Eagles have both bucked expectations and returned to an elite level. 

It’s a crowded playoff race, and therefore tempting to fade the Chiefs and their deliberate play style. But Kansas City has dealt with serious postseason threats before, and in those situations, few have proven capable of out-dueling Mahomes. At various points in his career, Tom Brady wasn’t a fantasy football darling either, but he knew how to take care of business and trust an elite defense. It’s a distinct possibility that it’s the next step for Mahomes, too.