NFL Free Agents 2016 List: Top 10 ‘Buyer-Beware’ Picks

The NFL free agent season is an exciting time during which teams can fill holes or bolster their franchises, players can dream about their potential massive paydays, and fans can eagerly wait to see which top players their team might sign for the upcoming season.

NFL Free Agents 2016 List: Top 10 ‘Buyer-Beware’ Picks

However, it has also often ended up being a time where teams who invest heavily in the market end up with buyer’s remorse, getting a return that is much lower than the one they had hoped for. After the 2013 season, for example, the New York Giants went out on a massive spending spree, taking 14 big-name free agents they hoped would boost a team that started 0-6 in the previous season and re-signing a few of their own unrestricted free agents. They spent more than $100 million in total. They ended up with 6-10 records their following two seasons, and now have only running back Rashad Jennings and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left from that shopping extravaganza.

Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus, writing for ESPN Insider, has compiled a list of the top 10 players he considers “buyer beware” free agents. Many of the players on Monson’s list are of interest to the Giants, or at least to the Giants’ fan base.

No. 1 is Miami Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon, a player who could potentially improve the Giants’ pass rush.

“Vernon was dominant for much of the season, and legitimately elite, but when compared to his career baseline, it represents an alarming outlier in a contract season,” Monson writes. “He recorded 81 total pressures this season, 33 more than he had in any other year of his career. In addition, a breakdown of his season shows the bulk of his dominance coming in a 10-game stretch to finish the year. He showed the ability to be one of the best edge defenders in football, but teams face the prospect of handing him a contract commensurate with that ability when it represents just 10 of the 46 games he has started over his career.”

No. 2 is the Giants’ own defensive end, Jason Pierre-Paul, about whom Monson said: “His true ceiling and ability with his hand the way it is remains up in the air, though, and any team pursuing him in free agency is operating with a degree of guesswork.”

No. 3 is Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin, who has two Pro Bowls, two 1,400-yard rushing seasons, an All-Pro honor in 2015 and 107 pass receptions in four seasons. The Giants would be paying 27-year-old Martin roughly $8 million annually, and a deal with the Giants seems to be almost exactly what the RB is looking for.

Finally, No. 6 is Kansas City Chiefs guard Jeff Allen, about whom Monson stated:

“At just 26 years old in a league struggling to find quality O-line play, he may well be one of the most desirable targets out there. The issue is that we have seen a lot of play from Allen at this point in his career, and very little of it has been good. He did not allow a sack last season and surrendered only 14 total pressures (four of which came playing out of position at right tackle), but in his two previous seasons, he surrendered an average of four sacks, 5.5 hits and 18.5 hurries, and he run blocked poorly. The potential is there, but banking on it in 2016 is a gamble.”

Caption: EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – DECEMBER 01: Olivier Vernon #50 of the Miami Dolphins in action against the Miami Dolphins during their game at MetLife Stadium on December 1, 2013 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)