Bracketology: Plenty Of Big Name Schools Remain On Bubble Watch

While Selection Sunday is still two and a half weeks away, there are a lot of notable teams that have made NCAA Tournament runs in recent years still on ESPN.com writer Eaomann Brennan‘s list of teams with work left to do.

Connecticut, just two years removed from winning the title, is probably the team casual basketball fans are most familiar with.  Currently in fifth place in the American Athletic Conference, two game behind leader Temple, the Huskies are 19-8 (9-5 AAC).  The only real notable win for them is a 71-66 win in Austin against Texas, then unranked.  UConn is 0-4 against fellow American teams Cincinnati and Temple, both ahead in the conference standings.  With SMU banned from postseason play, the other top teams (Temple (17-9), Cincinnati (20-8), Tulsa (18-9), and UConn) are all on the bubble with no guarantees.  The Huskies have four games remaining (at South Florida, home against Houston, at SMU, home against UCF) until the conference tournament, where the winner gets an automatic bid.  Connecticut is the 9 seed in the West according to Joe Lunardi, so they should be safe unless disaster strikes.

In Lunardi’s bracket, UConn faces eighth seeded Wisconsin, coming off back-to-back Final Four appearances, including one National Championship appearance last year.  The Badgers have faced adversity this season, longtime coach Bo Ryan retired on December 15, and Greg Gard was the new man in charge.  Wisconsin has some bad  losses this year to Western Illinois and UW-Milwaukee, but also have good quality wins including a dominant performance at then #2 Maryland, and wins against Michigan State, Syracuse, and VCU.  Only two of the Badgers’ 10 losses are by double digits, to Oklahoma and Georgetown.  The Badgers have really stepped up their play lately and recently had a 7 game winning streak until last Wednesday, when they lost in East Lansing to the Spartans.  Wisconsin closes out its season with three of four on the road including visits to Iowa and Purdue.  The other two games are home against Michigan and on the road against Minnesota.

The Rams of Virginia Commonwealth are the ninth seed in the South region of Lunardi’s bracket.  VCU became a Cinderella team during the 2011 NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed.  They became the first team to make from the “First Four” play in games, to reach the Final Four, before losing to Butler.  The Rams sit atop the Atlantic 10 standings with a 20-7 record (12-2 in A10).  With two solid wins, 85-82 at St. Joseph’s and 84-76 against St. Bonaventure, the Rams will likely make the tournament even if they do not win the A10 conference tourney, if they can get at least two wins in their final four games.  The Rams at George Mason and then at fellow bubble team George Washington, who beat the Rams 72-69 on February 6.  The Rams then close the season hosting Davidson before traveling to Dayton in the finale.  In order to guarantee an at-large bid, VCU likely needs two wins there, preferably three if they lose to the Flyers.

The Syracuse Orange (18-10, 8-7 ACC) provide an interesting team for the tourney.  They are under .500 against teams in the RPI top 50.  With quality wins against Duke, UConn, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, and Notre Dame.  Aside from Duke and A&M, the Orange looked like they weren’t quite at the level of the elite teams in their losses to Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia, and Louisville, among others.  The Orange also have to worry about the committee looking at bad losses this year as the Orange lost to St. John’s 72-84, the Red Storm are just 8-20 and only recently snapped a 16 game losing streak.  With losses in their last two games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, both would’ve been quality wins, the Syracuse likely needs to beat UNC on February 29, to completely guarantee an at-large bid.  Lunardi has Syracuse as the 10th seed in the West region.  The other two remaining games are against NC State and Florida State, Syracuse would do well to win those and not give the committee any reason to doubt them.

Another interesting case is the LSU Tigers.  The Tigers have the likely top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft in Ben Simmons and many people feel he is the top player in the country.  The Tigers’ resumé however, is not that great with only three quality wins, a dominant showing against Kentucky and close wins over Alabama and Texas A&M.  LSU has a number of losses against it’s tougher competition as evidenced by losses to Florida, A&M, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Alabama.  The Bayou Bengals also have a staggering number of teams including Wake Forest and Charleston.  The Tigers are currently on the outside looking in on Lunardi’s bracket, and I would agree with that.  The committee is faced with a tough question of whether to let LSU in with the star power and bigger fan base than other smaller, more qualified teams.

It should be an exciting end of the season and be sure to tune into Selection Sunday, March 13, before the 2016 NCAA Tournament tips off March 15.